Debt levels, operational costs of fields, and a broader market crash are making these companies question their survival. Stocks across the energy sector are in the red, with upstream oil and gas companies in particular pain. Even promises about keeping dividends at current levels or of cutting upstream spending won’t bring investors back
The first three months of 2020 have shocked the global energy market to its foundations. The toxic mix of coronavirus, a global economic recession, and an unexpected OPEC+ price spat have hit ever aspect of the energy industry. The ongoing global oil and gas glut, which will become even more prominent when oil storage space hits zero, is a major threat to IOCs, independents, and minnows. The unprecedented demand destruction forecasts of 20 million barrels per day will transform the oil industry as we know it. The true impact of this toxic mix of economic, fundamental and geopolitical uncertainty remains unclear, but we can expect a wave of bankruptcies in the US shale industry, the North Sea offshore sector and across the Canadian oil and gas sector. If the current crisis is prolonged for several more months, non-OPEC countries around the globe will see oil production collapse. The oil majors such as Shell, Exxon and ENI, are not yet in danger, as their available cash and market share makes them too large to fail. But other operators, such as Occidental, Whiting and others, are currently fighting for their lives. Debt levels, operational costs of fields, and a broader market crash are making these companies question their survival. Stocks across the energy sector are in the red, with upstream oil and gas companies in particular pain. Even promises about keeping dividends at current levels or of cutting upstream spending won’t bring investors back. Privately owned energy companies are being hit, from all sides, making them ideal prey for private equities and oil majors.
